
@misc{QWI,
  author = {{U.S. Census Bureau}},
  year = "2020",
  title = "Quarterly Workforce Indicators, 1990-Present",
  url =  "https://www.census.gov/data/developers/data-sets/qwi.html"

}


@article{Baccini21,
	title = {Gone {For} {Good}: {Deindustrialization}, {White} {Voter} {Backlash}, and {US} {Presidential} {Voting}},
	volume = {115},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	shorttitle = {Gone {For} {Good}},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/gone-for-good-deindustrialization-white-voter-backlash-and-us-presidential-voting/B647DC5EE8CE52562B09797E6D5AF37E},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055421000022},
	abstract = {Globalization and automation have contributed to deindustrialization and the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs, yielding important electoral implications across advanced democracies. Coupling insights from economic voting and social identity theory, we consider how different groups in society may construe manufacturing job losses in contrasting ways. We argue that deindustrialization threatens dominant group status, leading some white voters in affected localities to favor candidates they believe will address economic distress and defend racial hierarchy. Examining three US presidential elections, we find white voters were more likely to vote for Republican challengers where manufacturing layoffs were high, whereas Black voters in hard-hit localities were more likely to vote for Democrats. In survey data, white respondents, in contrast to people of color, associated local manufacturing job losses with obstacles to individual upward mobility and with broader American economic decline. Group-based identities help explain divergent political reactions to common economic shocks.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2021-10-12},
	journal = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Baccini, Leonardo and Weymouth, Stephen},
	month = may,
	year = {2021},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	pages = {550--567},
	file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\XNAY2NY3\\B647DC5EE8CE52562B09797E6D5AF37E.html:text/html;Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\Z93DDIEE\\Baccini and Weymouth - 2021 - Gone For Good Deindustrialization, White Voter Ba.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@book{Bartik91,
	title = {Who {Benefits} from {State} and {Local} {Economic} {Development} {Policies}?},
	url = {https://ideas.repec.org/b/upj/ubooks/wbsle.html},
	abstract = {Bartik reviews evidence on whether state and local policies affect job growth. He then presents empirical data supporting the intentions of such programs, showing that job growth may lead to a number of positive long-term effects including: lower unemployment, higher labor force participation, higher real estate values, and better occupational opportunities. He also shows that the earnings gains to disadvantaged groups outweigh the resulting increased real estate values for property owners, and concludes by saying that regional competition for jobs may actually be a benefit for the nation as a whole.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	publisher = {W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research},
	author = {Bartik, Timothy J.},
	year = {1991},
	note = {Publication Title: Books from Upjohn Press},
	keywords = {economic development, firm location, firm relocation, job growth, local, regional, regional economic development, subsidies, tax credits},
	file = {Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\LNP3DH4K\\wbsle.html:text/html},
}

@article{Autor20,
	title = {Importing {Political} {Polarization}? {The} {Electoral} {Consequences} of {Rising} {Trade} {Exposure}},
	volume = {110},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	shorttitle = {Importing {Political} {Polarization}?},
	url = {http://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20170011},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.20170011},
	language = {en},
	number = {10},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Autor, David and Dorn, David and Hanson, Gordon and Majlesi, Kaveh},
	month = oct,
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {Media, Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics: Regional Migration, Neighborhood Characteristics, Non-labor Discrimination, Entertainment, Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior, Empirical Studies of Trade, Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants, Population, Regional Labor Markets},
	pages = {3139--3183},
	file = {Full Text:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\U9BZDGJV\\Autor et al. - 2020 - Importing Political Polarization The Electoral Co.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\U28NXBF5\\articles.html:text/html},
}

@article{BR21,
	title = {Economic {Decline}, {Social} {Identity}, and {Authoritarian} {Values} in the {United} {States}},
	issn = {0020-8833},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab027},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqab027},
	abstract = {Why does the contemporary backlash against globalization in the United States have such a substantial authoritarian character? We argue that sustained economic decline has a negative effect on the social identity of historically dominant groups. These losses lead individuals to be more likely to want to enforce social norm conformity—that is, adopt more authoritarian values—as a way to preserve social status and this effect is greater the larger the size of other groups in the population. Central to our account is the expectation of an interactive effect of local economic and demographic conditions in forging value responses to economic decline. The article evaluates this argument using an original 2017 representative survey in the United States. We find that individuals living in relatively diverse regions facing more intense competition from Chinese imports have more authoritarian values. We further find that the greater effect of globalization-induced labor market decline in more diverse areas is also evident for vote choice in the 2016 Presidential election.},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Ballard-Rosa, Cameron and Jensen, Amalie and Scheve, Kenneth},
	month = apr,
	year = {2021},
	pages = {sqab027},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\JUP9EBTU\\Ballard-Rosa et al. - 2021 - Economic Decline, Social Identity, and Authoritari.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\UVXIXJBV\\6256834.html:text/html},
}

@article{Acemoglu16,
	title = {Import {Competition} and the {Great} {US} {Employment} {Sag} of the 2000s},
	volume = {34},
	issn = {0734-306X},
	url = {http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/682384},
	doi = {10.1086/682384},
	abstract = {Even before the Great Recession, US employment growth was unimpressive. Between 2000 and 2007, the economy gave back the considerable employment gains achieved during the 1990s, with a historic contraction in manufacturing employment being a prime contributor to the slump. We estimate that import competition from China, which surged after 2000, was a major force behind both recent reductions in US manufacturing employment and—through input-output linkages and other general equilibrium channels—weak overall US job growth. Our central estimates suggest job losses from rising Chinese import competition over 1999–2011 in the range of 2.0–2.4 million.},
	number = {S1},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {Journal of Labor Economics},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Autor, David and Dorn, David and Hanson, Gordon H. and Price, Brendan},
	month = jan,
	year = {2016},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
	pages = {S141--S198},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\2S6BBJ83\\Acemoglu et al. - 2016 - Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag.pdf:application/pdf},
}


@article{Imai14,
	title = {Covariate balancing propensity score},
	volume = {76},
	issn = {1467-9868},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/rssb.12027},
	doi = {10.1111/rssb.12027},
	abstract = {The propensity score plays a central role in a variety of causal inference settings. In particular, matching and weighting methods based on the estimated propensity score have become increasingly common in the analysis of observational data. Despite their popularity and theoretical appeal, the main practical difficulty of these methods is that the propensity score must be estimated. Researchers have found that slight misspecification of the propensity score model can result in substantial bias of estimated treatment effects. We introduce covariate balancing propensity score (CBPS) methodology, which models treatment assignment while optimizing the covariate balance. The CBPS exploits the dual characteristics of the propensity score as a covariate balancing score and the conditional probability of treatment assignment. The estimation of the CBPS is done within the generalized method-of-moments or empirical likelihood framework. We find that the CBPS dramatically improves the poor empirical performance of propensity score matching and weighting methods reported in the literature. We also show that the CBPS can be extended to other important settings, including the estimation of the generalized propensity score for non-binary treatments and the generalization of experimental estimates to a target population. Open source software is available for implementing the methods proposed.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Ratkovic, Marc},
	year = {2014},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rssb.12027},
	keywords = {Causal inference, Instrumental variables, Inverse propensity score weighting, Marginal structural models, Observational studies, Propensity score matching, Randomized experiments},
	pages = {243--263},
	file = {Full Text:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\7S2XIPIX\\Imai and Ratkovic - 2014 - Covariate balancing propensity score.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\DTNSJSGI\\rssb.html:text/html},
}

@article{Jensen17,
	title = {Winners and {Losers} in {International} {Trade}: {The} {Effects} on {US} {Presidential} {Voting}},
	volume = {71},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	shorttitle = {Winners and {Losers} in {International} {Trade}},
	url = {http://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/winners-and-losers-in-international-trade-the-effects-on-us-presidential-voting/B946341FFC5A9A88182DC933BE770C5C},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818317000194},
	abstract = {International trade directly influences US presidential elections. We explore the electoral implications of the increasing tradability of services and the large US surplus in services trade. Our paper builds on prior work showing that job insecurity from import competition in manufacturing diminishes political support for incumbents. We construct novel measures of the tradability of an industry using establishment-level data covering nearly all US economic activity. We find increases in incumbent party vote shares in counties with large numbers of workers in high-skilled tradable services as well as goods, and decreases in counties with high employment in low-skilled manufacturing. Incumbent parties are particularly vulnerable to losing votes in swing states with many low-skilled manufacturing workers. In national-level models, we show for the first time that increasing imports (exports) are associated with decreasing (increasing) presidential incumbent vote shares. The national-level effects are large and politically consequential. We also find an Electoral College incentive to protect the manufacturing sector and to oppose trade agreements.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {International Organization},
	author = {Jensen, J. Bradford and Quinn, Dennis P. and Weymouth, Stephen},
	year = {2017},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	pages = {423--457},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\ISC3VME8\\Jensen et al. - 2017 - Winners and Losers in International Trade The Eff.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\ST5SL4SU\\B946341FFC5A9A88182DC933BE770C5C.html:text/html},
}

@article{Che16,
	type = {Working {Paper}},
	title = {Does {Trade} {Liberalization} with {China} {Influence} {U}.{S}. {Elections}?},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w22178},
	abstract = {This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office during the period examined being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance.},
	number = {22178},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Che, Yi and Lu, Yi and Pierce, Justin R. and Schott, Peter K. and Tao, Zhigang},
	month = apr,
	year = {2016},
	doi = {10.3386/w22178},
	note = {Series: Working Paper Series},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\SHW5CTZA\\Che et al. - 2016 - Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S.pdf:application/pdf},
}



@software{Stargazer,
  author = {{Marek Hlavak}},
  title = {Stargazer: Well-Formatted Regression and Summary Statistics
Tables},
  url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=stargazer},
  version = {5.2.2},
}


@article{Mckee09,
	title = {Life after the layoff: getting a job worth keeping},
	volume = {30},
	issn = {1099-1379},
	shorttitle = {Life after the layoff},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/job.566},
	doi = {10.1002/job.566},
	abstract = {The competitive environment of business today makes corporate layoffs an organizational reality, and losing one's job can be a highly stressful experience. We propose and test a model that places objective underemployment and subjective underemployment in a causal sequence between organizational actions and employees' restoration of equilibrium by obtaining jobs worth keeping. We longitudinally examine relationships between layoff fairness, workers' stress symptoms and appraisal, and subsequent employment outcomes among 149 laid-off technical employees over the course of one year. Structural equation model results support seven of nine hypothesized paths, and demonstrate discriminant validity between and mediational properties of objective and subjective underemployment. Findings also reveal the important role that employees' perceptions and subjective assessments play in successfully returning to pre-job loss equilibrium following displacement. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {Journal of Organizational Behavior},
	author = {McKee-Ryan, Frances M. and Virick, Meghna and Prussia, Gregory E. and Harvey, Jaron and Lilly, Juliana D.},
	year = {2009},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/job.566},
	pages = {561--580},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\CEV9XFNW\\McKee-Ryan et al. - 2009 - Life after the layoff getting a job worth keeping.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\AA6ZQPYM\\job.html:text/html},
}

@article{Foote19,
	title = {Locate {Your} {Nearest} {Exit}: {Mass} {Layoffs} and {Local} {Labor} {Market} {Response}},
	volume = {72},
	issn = {0019-7939},
	shorttitle = {Locate {Your} {Nearest} {Exit}},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0019793917753095},
	doi = {10.1177/0019793917753095},
	abstract = {Large shocks to local labor markets can cause long-lasting changes to employment, unemployment, and the local labor force. This study examines the relationship between mass layoffs and the long-run size of the local labor force. The authors consider four main channels through which the local labor force may adjust: in-migration, out-migration, retirement, and disability insurance enrollment. These channels, primarily out-migration, account for more than half of the labor force reduction over the past two decades. Findings show, however, that during and after the Great Recession, instead of out-migration, non-participation in the labor force grew to account for most of the local labor force exits following a mass layoff.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {ILR Review},
	author = {Foote, Andrew and Grosz, Michel and Stevens, Ann},
	month = jan,
	year = {2019},
	note = {Publisher: SAGE Publications Inc},
	keywords = {disability insurance, displaced workers, Great Recession, labor force participation, migration, retirement},
	pages = {101--126},
	file = {SAGE PDF Full Text:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\4KD9G6VD\\Foote et al. - 2019 - Locate Your Nearest Exit Mass Layoffs and Local L.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{Green19,
	title = {The {Differential} {Effects} of {Economic} {Conditions} and {Racial} {Attitudes} in the {Election} of {Donald} {Trump}},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {http://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/differential-effects-of-economic-conditions-and-racial-attitudes-in-the-election-of-donald-trump/BA444B3A13CC950E6FCA7CC16C33142F},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592718003365},
	abstract = {Debates over the extent to which racial attitudes and economic distress explain voting behavior in the 2016 election have tended to be limited in scope, focusing on the extent to which each factor explains white voters’ two-party vote choice. This limited scope obscures important ways in which these factors could have been related to voting behavior among other racial sub-groups of the electorate, as well as participation in the two-party contest in the first place. Using the vote-validated 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Survey, merged with economic data at the ZIP code and county levels, we find that racial attitudes strongly explain two-party vote choice among white voters—in line with a growing body of literature. However, we also find that local economic distress was strongly associated with non-voting among people of color, complicating direct comparisons between racial and economic explanations of the 2016 election and cautioning against generalizations regarding causal emphasis.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Green, Jon and McElwee, Sean},
	month = jun,
	year = {2019},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	pages = {358--379},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\7MUKP7IZ\\Green and McElwee - 2019 - The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions an.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\YE9Q3EUW\\BA444B3A13CC950E6FCA7CC16C33142F.html:text/html},
}

@article{Reny19,
	title = {Vote {Switching} in the 2016 {Election}: {How} {Racial} and {Immigration} {Attitudes}, {Not} {Economics}, {Explain} {Shifts} in {White} {Voting}},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {0033-362X},
	shorttitle = {Vote {Switching} in the 2016 {Election}},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz011},
	doi = {10.1093/poq/nfz011},
	abstract = {In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s 2016 electoral-college victory, journalists focused heavily on the White working class (WWC) and the relationship between economic anxiety, racial attitudes, immigration attitudes, and support for Trump. One hypothesized but untested proposition for Donald Trump’s success is that his unorthodox candidacy, particularly his rhetoric surrounding economic marginalization and immigration, shifted WWC voters who did not vote Republican in 2012 into his coalition. Using a large national survey, we examine: (1) whether racial and immigration attitudes or economic dislocation and marginality were the main correlates of vote switching; and (2) whether this phenomenon was isolated among the White working class. Findings indicate that a nontrivial number of White voters switched their votes in the 2016 election to Trump or Clinton, that this vote switching was more associated with racial and immigration attitudes than economic factors, and that the phenomenon occurred among both working-class and nonworking-class Whites, though many more working-class Whites switched than did nonworking-class Whites. Our findings suggest that racial and immigration attitudes may be continuing to sort White voters into new partisan camps and further polarize the parties.},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	journal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
	author = {Reny, Tyler T and Collingwood, Loren and Valenzuela, Ali A},
	month = may,
	year = {2019},
	pages = {91--113},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\SCKCH7UF\\Reny et al. - 2019 - Vote Switching in the 2016 Election How Racial an.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\BJC97NEL\\5494625.html:text/html},
}

@article{Rodrik15,
	type = {Working {Paper}},
	title = {Premature {Deindustrialization}},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w20935},
	abstract = {I document a significant deindustrialization trend in recent decades, that goes considerably beyond the advanced, post-industrial economies. The hump-shaped relationship between industrialization (measured by employment or output shares) and incomes has shifted downwards and moved closer to the origin. This means countries are running out of industrialization opportunities sooner and at much lower levels of income compared to the experience of early industrializers. Asian countries and manufactures exporters have been largely insulated from those trends, while Latin American countries have been especially hard hit. Advanced economies have lost considerable employment (especially of the low-skill type), but they have done surprisingly well in terms of manufacturing output shares at constant prices. While these trends are not very recent, the evidence suggests both globalization and labor-saving technological progress in manufacturing have been behind these developments. Premature deindustrialization has potentially significant economic and political ramifications, including lower economic growth and democratic failure.},
	number = {20935},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Rodrik, Dani},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	doi = {10.3386/w20935},
	note = {Series: Working Paper Series},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\28X92NFM\\Rodrik - 2015 - Premature Deindustrialization.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{Castillo16,
	title = {Premature deindustrialization in {Latin} {America}},
	url = {https://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/40241},
	abstract = {Defining deindustrialization as a situation of falling share of manufacturing employment and value added in total employment and GDP, respectively, and a rising specialization in primary goods, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the recent (and in some cases historical) path of four Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico), contributing to the debate on the matter of premature deindustrialization. We argue that Argentina, Brazil and Chile face premature deindustrialization, increasing their specialization in commodities, resource-based manufactures and low productivity services, while Mexico urges a deeper analyze of its structure.},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2021-12-10},
	author = {Castillo, Mario and Martins, Antonio},
	month = jun,
	year = {2016},
	note = {Accepted: 2016-06-21T20:12:24Z
Publisher: ECLAC},
	file = {Full Text PDF:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\EXNWCEGK\\Castillo and Martins - 2016 - Premature deindustrialization in Latin America.pdf:application/pdf;Snapshot:C\:\\Users\\Zagreb\\Zotero\\storage\\XQ2JTKBD\\40241.html:text/html},
}



@article{Autor21,
	type = {Working {Paper}},
	title = {On the {Persistence} of the {China} {Shock}},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w29401},
	abstract = {Abstract We evaluate the duration of the China trade shock and its impact on a wide range of outcomes over the period 2000 to 2019. The shock plateaued in 2010, enabling analysis of its effects for nearly a decade past its culmination. Adverse impacts of import competition on manufacturing employment, overall employment-population ratios, and income per capita in more trade-exposed U.S. commuting zones are present out to 2019. Over the full study period, greater import competition implies a reduction in the manufacturing employment-population ratio of 1.54 percentage points, which is 55\% of the observed change in the value, and the absorption of 86\% of this net job loss via a corresponding decrease in the overall employment rate. Reductions in population headcounts, which indicate net out-migration, register only for foreign-born workers and the native-born 25-39 years old, implying that exit from work is a primary means of adjustment to trade-induced contractions in labor demand. More negatively affected regions see modest increases in the uptake of government transfers, but these transfers primarily take the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits. Adverse outcomes are more acute in regions that initially had fewer college-educated workers and were more industrially specialized. Impacts are qualitatively—but not quantitatively—similar to those caused by the decline of employment in coal production since the 1980s, indicating that the China trade shock holds lessons for other episodes of localized job loss. Import competition from China induced changes in income per capita across local labor markets that are much larger than the spatial heterogeneity of income effects predicted by standard quantitative trade models. Even using higher-end estimates of the consumer benefits of rising trade with China, a substantial fraction of commuting zones appears to have suffered absolute declines in average real incomes.},
	number = {29401},
	urldate = {2021-12-12},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Autor, David and Dorn, David and Hanson, Gordon H.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2021},
	doi = {10.3386/w29401},
	note = {Series: Working Paper Series},
}
